2026 Penn State Football Season Predictions
A lot changes in a year. Last September, we envisioned James Franklin and Drew Allar finally getting over the hump by overcoming their big game detriments in order to lead the Nittany Lions to a national championship. Now, following a depressingly disappointing 2025 season, a new head coach and his overhauled roster laden with Midwesterners who’ve never played a regular season game in a 70,000+ capacity stadium are tasked with returning Penn State’s standing to the upper echelon of both the Big Ten and college football. Still, I believe Athletic Director Pat Kraft fell ass backwards into a solid hire with Matt Campbell, whose floor-raising achievements at Iowa State were one of the most impressive of the twenty-first century in the non-Cignetti division. Campbell’s experience is a departure from Franklin’s shrinking in games against juggernauts, but his teams have been more susceptible to upsets in winnable games against inferior teams.
Despite this extensive transformation including several players leaving through the transfer portal for destinations like Blacksburg or Knoxville, many key contributors from the prior two seasons return including my linebacker king Tony Rojas, promising young defensive backs, and experienced offensive linemen.
Additionally, things won’t feel too overwhelmingly different thanks to an easier schedule (on paper) and the persistent presence of Boomers railing against the idea of a black and pink alternate throwback jersey. Tradition only matters if it’s something that honors the all-time winning coach and doesn’t affect their fragile masculinity!
What is this? One of those K Pop bands?
I’m a bit worried about the defensive line’s interior getting gashed in the run game and its edge potentially lacking the typically highly-rated athletic freak that Franklin consistently recruited who would repeatedly wreck games despite a dozen missed holding calls by the blind Big Ten refs. Overall though, I’m pretty bullish on the talented tight end room, the presence of a solid veteran quarterback, and most positions having an above average starter paving the way to an encouraging first season for Coach Campbell. Below, you’ll find my predictions for what will transpire each week of the season.
Week-by-week Result Predictions:
Week 1: vs Marshall: W – 33 – 14 (1-0)
One of those frustrating games where the offense comes out the gate and appears slightly constipated in the red zone as all of the pieces still work on meshing together. The score will look closer than it is for a bit until the defense makes a huge play and completely flips the tone of the game.
Week 2: @ Temple – W 34 – 18 (2-0)
As someone who went to the last PSU game played at Temple, I have to assume this one won’t be as depressing, but the Owls still exhibit the emblematic Philadelphia grit to keep it somewhat close.
Week 3: vs Buffalo – W 37 – 6 (3-0)
I could see the Bulls being solid in conference play, but at least their program will probably make seven figures for this game!
Week 4: vs Wisconsin – W 27 – 17 (4-0)
In my college football preview, I predicted Wisconsin to quit on Luke Fickell before he gets fired, but I believe they’ll still display some heart in September and cause Homecoming to be a more nerve-racking celebration.
Week 5: @ Northwestern – W 35 – 20 (5-0)
This has all the makings of a trap game: a short week between Homecoming and the White Out, a galvanized home atmosphere in a new stadium, and the Wildcats always playing friskier than expected. I see Northwestern winning until late in the third quarter when Rocco Becht takes control of the game.
Week 6: vs USC – W 31 – 28 (6-0)
There’s going to be a plethora of The Odyssey signs and references leading up to it, but I think the atmosphere and a trick play secure a big game victory over the Trojans.
Week 7: @ Michigan – L 22 – 27 (6-1)
As poet Psy once profoundly stated, “Hangover! Hangover! Hangover!...”
Week 8: Bye
Week 9: vs Purdue – W 38 – 11 (7-1)
The bye week used to be a curse under Franklin, but I think the opponent allows Campbell’s crew to feel confident in quashing the trend.
Week 10: @ Washington – L 17 – 30 (7-2)
I see jet lag, the time difference, and a rejuvenated Huskies squad led by Demond Williams creating major disadvantages for Penn States in this early November matchup.
Week 11: vs Minnesota – L 23 – 24 (7-3)
This is one of those games I could see Franklin winning more often than not and Campbell being outflanked by an inferior coach like PJ Fleck.
Week 12: vs Rutgers – W 41 – 13 (8-3)
I think the trend of routing Rutgers on Senior Day rolls on.
Week 13: @ Maryland – W 31 – 25 OT (9-3)
The Terps come to play in their final game of the season. I imagine post-Thanksgiving fatigue causes a rough first half for the PSU half before Carson Hansen's second half performance and Benjamin Brahmer’s OT performance save the day.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: vs SMU – W 27 – 24 (10-3)
Coach Campbell caps off a solid first year with a tenth win and a marvelous mayo bath.